3 Ways Disney Adults Keep Proving Analysts Wrong

It takes a Disney fan to know a Disney fan. Sure, Wall Street analysts can look at stock prices and data and make judgments about The Walt Disney Company, but over time, we’ve seen Disney adults prove analysts wrong. 

Between major price increases, Hollywood strikes, and project delays, it’s not easy to predict the future of Disney. Is Disney fan loyalty being tested? Despite what many think, the truth may surprise you! Let’s talk about three ways Disney adults keep proving analysts wrong.

The Box Office

Admittedly, several of Disney’s newest films did not perform the way Disney probably hoped. 2023 releases like The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones, and The Haunted Mansion failed to reach their estimated grosses.

One analyst went as far as to state that Disney has “a creative issue” that is holding the company back, according to CNBC. Disney analysts all seem to agree that Disney has not been successful with its theatrical releases, but one new movie surprised people. 

When Elemental debuted in theaters, it didn’t perform well. The film had the second-lowest box office debut in Pixar history, bringing in around $30 million in revenue.

But overseas, audiences seemed to respond to the movie in a BIG way. Nearly three months after its premiere, Elemental earned $478 million worldwide, according to Collider. The film ended up beating the projections and landed in 17th place among all Pixar releases.

Then, the movie picked up even more momentum when it debuted on Disney+. As of November 2nd, 2023, the film is still ranking within Nielsen‘s top ten streaming chart. In fact, Elemental currently ranks at the #4 spot in Nielsen’s streaming insights, with an estimated 862 minutes (Millions) watched between September 25th and October 1st, 2023.

According to Collider, Elemental outperformed two classic Pixar movies, including Cars ($461 million) and Toy Story ($356 million). Considering Disney analysts’ pessimistic outlook on the future of Disney’s box office success, it seems like there’s still an opportunity for some big wins.

How Disney’s ‘Elemental’ Went From Flop to Fame

The Theme Parks

Over the summer, the Disney World parks seemed to suffer from low attendance. During the second-quarter earnings call, Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products reported that the domestic parks and resorts revenue was “slightly unfavorable to the prior-year quarter.”

With the low theme park crowds in Disney World throughout the first half of 2023, many predicted Disney World’s crowd level would remain low for the fall and winter. One analyst told the Wall Street Journal, “Soft attendance this spring and summer, though, might have also been an early warning that consumers are pulling back.”

But despite the gloomy predictions, Disney World seems to have had a pretty successful fall season. Every one of the Magic Kingdom’s 31 Mickey’s Not-so-Scary Halloween parties sold out, and several of the holiday Christmas parties are sold out already, too.

We’re still waiting for Disney’s fourth-quarter earnings call to learn exactly how successful the Disney Parks were this fall/winter, but judging by the high wait times and sold-out parties, Disney adults proved they are still willing to spend their time and money in the parks.

ALL the SOLD OUT Dates for Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party in Magic Kingdom

Streaming

Let’s look back in time. About one year ago, Disney assured investors that Disney+ would soon reach profitability. Former CEO Bob Chapek stated that Disney+ would turn a profit in the fiscal year that starts next fall (right about now), “assuming we do not see a meaningful shift in the economic climate,” according to the New York Times.

But now that we’ve reached November 2023, is Disney getting closer to achieving all its streaming goals? At the third-quarter earnings call, Disney reported an operating loss of $0.5 billion. Note that Disney did see a decrease in its operating losses for the quarter, but it seems that Disney’s earlier predictions have not quite come to fruition.

Additionally, Disney+ had 11.7 million fewer subscribers than the previous quarter, proving Disney adults don’t seem as committed to Disney+ as analysts may have originally thought. With price increases across the board and a lack of new content, fans seem to be losing interest in Disney+. We’ll have to wait and see what the Disney+ numbers look like at Disney’s fourth-quarter earnings call in early November.

Predicting the future isn’t easy, but every once in a while, Disney fans surprise us! In the meantime, we’re always on the lookout for the latest Disney news, so stay tuned for more.

“Mickey’s Wide World of Governmental Dumpster Fires” — Problems Arise Within DeSantis’ Reedy Creek District

Are you planning a trip to Disney World this winter? Let us know in the comments!