Could the U.S. See a COVID-19 Surge This Winter? Here’s What the Experts Are Saying.

As the situation with COVID-19 continues to change and develop, AllEars will be bringing you the latest relevant news that could affect a theme park visit.

Many requirements and policies concerning COVID-19 in the United States have ended, with President Biden announcing recently that the pandemic is over.

The CDC has ended country-specific COVID-19 travel advisories, and the Disney Cruise Line no longer requires that guests on its cruise ships be vaccinated. As we go into the winter season, though, some experts have warned that we should be extra cautious, as a potential COVID-19 surge could be on the horizon.

According to NPR,  the U.S. could see a new surge in COVID-19 cases this winter as more people stay indoors “where the virus spreads more easily.” Although no surge has been reported yet, experts have said that “the first hints are emerging” that it could happen.

Currently, the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is continuing to decline, as it has been for a while now. The concern for a possible resurgence comes largely from what’s happening right now in Europe. Some countries — such as the UK, France, and Italy — are experiencing a rise in infections.

But is the situation in Europe unavoidably what we’ll see in the US? Some experts think not. One specialist said, “If it is mostly just behavioral changes and climate, we might be able to avoid similar upticks if there is broad uptake of the bivalent vaccine.” However, another stated that “in the past, what’s happened in Europe often has been a harbinger for what’s about to happen in the United States.”

The data is currently “projecting that COVID infections will continue to recede at least through the end of the year.” This could change, especially if a new variant emerges, but it looks like we may not see a situation like the 2 previous pandemic winters.

Although there are some indications that COVID-19 cases could increase — such as an increased presence of the virus in wastewater in some parts of the U.S. — Amy Kirby (of the CDC) said, “It’s really too early to say something big is happening, but it’s something that we’re keeping an eye on.”

Jennifer Nuzzo (who runs the Pandemic Center at the Brown University School of Public Health) is also optimistic: She said, “We have a lot more immunity in the population than we did last winter.”

The latest reports from CNN Health indicate that several new COVID-19 strains are “gaining traction globally” with quite a few already present in the United States. Variants BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BF.7, BA.4.6, BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2 have all been identified, though cases are still dropping in the US overall.

Experts are concerned that these new variants could change that as they accounted for almost 1 in 3 new COVID-19 infections in the US last week, according to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At this point, experts are still not certain whether these variants will continue to spread or if one will become more prevalent as we’ve seen in the past.

Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, stated, “What is likely to happen is that we have several co-circulating, semi-dominate lineages going into the winter season.”

As for now, the Omicron subvariant BA.5 strain remains dominant in the United States — accounting for 68% of new infections. The new bivalent vaccine authorized in September could combat the rise, though less than 10% of the eligible population has gotten the shot. The lack of boosted population combined with the new variants could lead to a rise in cases and hospitalizations in the coming weeks.

One of the best ways to protect yourself from COVID-19 is to stay up-to-date with your vaccines and boosters. Vaccines and boosters are largely available now, as demand has softened now that many people already have them.

Note that the U.S. Disney parks do not require guests to be vaccinated in order to enter, and face masks are not required anywhere in the parks either.

We’ll continue to watch for more updates on this situation, so stay tuned to AllEars for the latest news.

See how Disney responded to President Biden’s declaration that the pandemic is over.